SUMMARY OF 2002 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE

Verification of Previous Forecasts

Table 16: Summary verifications of the author's prior seasonal forecasts of Atlantic TC activity between 1984-2001.

	Prediction Dates

1984	24 May and		Observed
	30 July Update
No. of Hurricanes	7		5
No. of Named Storms	10		12
No. of Hurricane Days	30		18
No. of Named Storm Days	45		51
1985	of 28 May	Update	Observed
		27 July
No. of Hurricanes	8	7	7
No. of Named Storms	11	10	11
No. of Hurricane Days	35	30	21
No. of Named Storm Days	55	50	51
1986	29 May	Update	Observed
		28 July
No. of Hurricanes	4	4	4
No. of Named Storms	8	7	6
No. of Hurricane Days	15	10	11
No. of Named Storm Days	35	25	23
1987	26 May	Update	Observed
		28 July
No. of Hurricanes	5	4	3
No. of Named Storms	8	7	7
No. of Hurricane Days	20	15	5
No. of Named Storm Days	40	35	37

1988	26 May and		Observed
	28 July Update
No. of Hurricanes	7		5
No. of Named Storms	11		12
No. of Hurricane Days	30		21
No. of Named Storm Days	50		47
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	75		81
1989	26 May	Update	Observed
		27 July
No. of Hurricanes	4	4	7
No. of Named Storms	7	9	11
No. of Hurricane Days	15	15	32
No. of Named Storm Days	30	35	66
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	40	40	108
1990	5 June	Update	Observed
		3 August
No. of Hurricanes	7	6	8
No. of Named Storms	11	11	14
No. of Hurricane Days	30	25	27
No. of Named Storm Days	55	50	66
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	90	75	57
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)	3	2	1
Major Hurr. Days	Not Fcst.	5	1.00
1991	5 June	Update	Observed
		2 August
No. of Hurricanes	4	3	4
No. of Named Storms	8	7	8
No. of Hurricane Days	15	10	8
No. of Named Storm Days	35	30	22
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	40	25	22
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)	1	0	2
Major Hurr. Days	2	0	1.25

1992		Update	Update	Observed
	26 Nov 1991	5 June	5 August
No. of Hurricanes	4	4	4	4
No. of Named Storms	8	8	8	6
No. of Hurricane Days	15	15	15	16
No. of Named Storm Days	35	35	35	39
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	35	35	35	51
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)	1	1	1	1
Major Hurr. Days	2	2	2	3.25
1993		Update	Update	Observed
	24 Nov 1992	4 June	5 August
No. of Hurricanes	6	7	6	4
No. of Named Storms	11	11	10	8
No. of Hurricane Days	25	25	25	10
No. of Named Storm Days	55	55	50	30
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	75	65	55	23
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)	3	2	2	1
Major Hurr. Days	7	3	2	0.75
1994		Update	Update	Observed
	19 Nov 1993	5 June	4 August
No. of Hurricanes	6	5	4	3
No. of Named Storms	10	9	7	7
No. of Hurricane Days	25	15	12	7
No. of Named Storm Days	60	35	30	28
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	85	40	35	15
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)	2	1	1	0
Major Hurr. Days	7	1	1	0
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity	110	70	55	36

		Update	Update	Update
1995	30 Nov 1994	14 April	7 June	4 August	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	8	6	8	9	11
No. of Named Storms	12	10	12	16	19
No. of Hurricane Days	35	25	35	30	62
No. of Named Storm Days	65	50	65	65	121
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	100	75	110	90	173
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)	3	2	3	3	5
Major Hurr. Days	8	5	6	5	11.5
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity	140	100	140	130	229

		Update	Update	Update
1996	30 Nov 1995	4 April	7 June	4 August	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	5	7	6	7	9
No. of Named Storms	8	11	10	11	13
No. of Hurricane Days	20	25	20	25	45
No. of Named Storm Days	40	55	45	50	78
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	50	75	60	70	135
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)	2	2	2	3	6
Major Hurr. Days	5	5	5	4	13
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity	85	105	95	105	198

		Update	Update	Update
1997	30 Nov 1996	4 April	6 June	5 August	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	7	7	7	6	3
No. of Named Storms	11	11	11	11	7
No. of Hurricane Days	25	25	25	20	10
No. of Named Storm Days	55	55	55	45	28
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	75	75	75	60	26
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)	3	3	3	2	1
Major Hurr. Days	5	5	5	4	2.2
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity	110	110	110	100	54

		Update	Update	Update
1998	6 Dec 1997	7 April	5 June	6 August	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	5	6	6	6	10
No. of Named Storms	9	10	10	10	14
No. of Hurricane Days	20	20	25	25	49
No. of Named Storm Days	40	50	50	50	80
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	50	65	70	75	145
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)	2	2	2	2	3
Major Hurr. Days	4	4	5	5	9.2
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity	90	95	100	110	173

		Update	Update	Update
1999	5 Dec 1998	7 April	4 June	6 August	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	9	9	9	9	8
No. of Named Storms	14	14	14	14	12
No. of Hurricane Days	40	40	40	40	43
No. of Named Storm Days	65	65	75	75	77
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	130	130	130	130	145
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)	4	4	4	4	5
Major Hurr. Days	10	10	10	10	15
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity	160	160	160	160	193

		Update	Update	Update
2000	8 Dec 1999	7 April	7 June	4 August	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	7	7	8	7	8
No. of Named Storms	11	11	12	11	14
No. of Hurricane Days	25	25	35	30	32
No. of Named Storm Days	55	55	65	55	66
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	85	85	100	90	85
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)	3	3	4	3	3
Major Hurr. Days	6	6	8	6	5.25
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity	125	125	160	130	134

		Update	Update	Update
2001	7 Dec 2000	6 April	7 June	7 August	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	5	6	7	7	9
No. of Named Storms	9	10	12	12	15
No. of Hurricane Days	20	25	30	30	27
No. of Named Storm Days	45	50	60	60	63
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)	65	65	75	75	71
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)	2	2	3	3	4
Major Hurr. Days	4	4	5	5	5
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity	90	100	120	120	142

File translated from T_EX by T_TH, version 3.12.
On 21 Nov 2002, 19:22.