Verification of Previous Forecasts



Table 16: Summary verifications of the author's prior seasonal forecasts of Atlantic TC activity between 1984-2001.



Prediction Dates
1984 24 May and Observed
30 July Update
No. of Hurricanes 7 5
No. of Named Storms 10 12
No. of Hurricane Days 30 18
No. of Named Storm Days 45 51
1985 of 28 May Update Observed
27 July
No. of Hurricanes 8 7 7
No. of Named Storms 11 10 11
No. of Hurricane Days35 30 21
No. of Named Storm Days55 50 51
1986 29 May Update Observed
28 July
No. of Hurricanes 4 4 4
No. of Named Storms 8 7 6
No. of Hurricane Days 15 10 11
No. of Named Storm Days35 25 23
198726 May Update Observed
28 July
No. of Hurricanes 54 3
No. of Named Storms 8 7 7
No. of Hurricane Days20 155
No. of Named Storm Days40 35 37
1988 26 May and Observed
28 July Update
No. of Hurricanes 7 5
No. of Named Storms 11 12
No. of Hurricane Days 30 21
No. of Named Storm Days 50 47
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP) 75 81
1989 26 May Update Observed
27 July
No. of Hurricanes 4 4 7
No. of Named Storms 7 9 11
No. of Hurricane Days 15 15 32
No. of Named Storm Days 30 35 66
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP) 40 40 108
1990 5 June Update Observed
3 August
No. of Hurricanes 7 6 8
No. of Named Storms 11 11 14
No. of Hurricane Days 30 25 27
No. of Named Storm Days 55 50 66
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)90 75 57
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5) 3 2 1
Major Hurr. Days Not Fcst. 5 1.00
1991 5 June Update Observed
2 August
No. of Hurricanes 43 4
No. of Named Storms 8 7 8
No. of Hurricane Days 15 10 8
No. of Named Storm Days 35 30 22
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP)40 25 22
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5) 102
Major Hurr. Days2 0 1.25

1992 Update Update Observed
26 Nov 19915 June5 August
No. of Hurricanes 444 4
No. of Named Storms 88 8 6
No. of Hurricane Days 1515 1516
No. of Named Storm Days 3535 35 39
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP) 3535 35 51
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5) 11 1 1
Major Hurr. Days 22 2 3.25
1993 Update Update Observed
24 Nov 19924 June5 August
No. of Hurricanes 676 4
No. of Named Storms 1111 10 8
No. of Hurricane Days 2525 2510
No. of Named Storm Days 5555 50 30
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP) 7565 55 23
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5) 32 2 1
Major Hurr. Days 73 2 0.75
1994 Update Update Observed
19 Nov 19935 June4 August
No. of Hurricanes 654 3
No. of Named Storms 109 7 7
No. of Hurricane Days 2515 127
No. of Named Storm Days 6035 30 28
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP) 8540 35 15
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5) 21 1 0
Major Hurr. Days 71 1 0
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity 110 70 55 36

Update Update Update
1995 30 Nov 1994 14 April 7 June4 August Obs.
No. of Hurricanes 8 6 89 11
No. of Named Storms 12 10 12 16 19
No. of Hurricane Days 35 2535 30 62
No. of Named Storm Days 65 5065 65 121
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP) 10075110 90 173
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)3 23 3 5
Major Hurr. Days 856 5 11.5
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity 140 100 140 130 229

Update Update Update
1996 30 Nov 19954 April 7 June 4 August Obs.
No. of Hurricanes 5 7 6 7 9
No. of Named Storms 811 10 11 13
No. of Hurricane Days 20 25 20 25 45
No. of Named Storm Days 40 55 45 50 78
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP) 5075 60 70 135
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)2 2 2 3 6
Major Hurr. Days 5 5 54 13
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity 85 105 95 105 198

Update Update Update
1997 30 Nov 19964 April 6 June5 August Obs.
No. of Hurricanes 7 7 7 6 3
No. of Named Storms 1111 11 11 7
No. of Hurricane Days 25 25 25 20 10
No. of Named Storm Days 55 55 55 45 28
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP) 7575 75 60 26
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)3 3 3 2 1
Major Hurr. Days 5 5 54 2.2
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity 110 110 110 100 54

Update Update Update
1998 6 Dec 19977 April 5 June6 August Obs.
No. of Hurricanes 5 6 6 6 10
No. of Named Storms 910 10 10 14
No. of Hurricane Days 20 20 25 25 49
No. of Named Storm Days 40 50 50 50 80
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP) 50 65 70 75 145
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)2 2 2 2 3
Major Hurr. Days 4 4 55 9.2
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity 90 95 100 110 173

Update Update Update
1999 5 Dec 19987 April 4 June6 August Obs.
No. of Hurricanes 9 9 9 9 8
No. of Named Storms 14 14 14 14 12
No. of Hurricane Days 40 40 40 40 43
No. of Named Storm Days 65 65 75 75 77
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP) 130 130 130 130 145
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)4 4 4 4 5
Major Hurr. Days 10 10 1010 15
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity 160 160 160 160 193

Update Update Update
2000 8 Dec 1999 7 April 7 June4 August Obs.
No. of Hurricanes 7 7 8 7 8
No. of Named Storms 11 11 12 11 14
No. of Hurricane Days 25 25 35 30 32
No. of Named Storm Days 55 55 65 55 66
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP) 85 85 100 90 85
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)3 3 4 3 3
Major Hurr. Days 6 6 8 6 5.25
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity 125 125 160 130 134

Update Update Update
2001 7 Dec 20006 April 7 June7 August Obs.
No. of Hurricanes 5 6 7 7 9
No. of Named Storms 9 10 12 12 15
No. of Hurricane Days 20 25 30 30 27
No. of Named Storm Days 45 50 60 60 63
Hurr. Destruction Potential(HDP) 65 65 75 75 71
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5)2 2 3 3 4
Major Hurr. Days 4 4 5 5 5
Net Trop. Cyclone (NTC) Activity 90 100 120 120 142




File translated from TEX by TTH, version 3.12.
On 21 Nov 2002, 19:22.